Recommendations

Overview

The depth and duration of the current crisis has underscored the need for greater effectiveness in reducing the impact of a global pandemic. The stealth and speed at which COVID-19 has spread highlighted major shortcomings with the current set of responses. Vaccines are known to work but take billions of dollars and years to develop. Despite accelerated investment and promising headlines, one has yet to be approved for the general population. Lockdowns work but come at a heavy price with considerable disruption of business as usual. Social distancing guidelines are prone to uneven compliance. The emergence of airborne transmission as the primary mode for spreading the disease is a major factor in super spreader events and the use case abstracts for transportation and buildings.

An initial review of SRET has identified the potential to address a number of open issues with the existing methods.

It is a proactive means of inactivating the virus and is independent of personal choice.
It can be quickly deployed with a range of effectiveness at relatively low cost,
It is capable of supporting a range of applications and configurations
It is easily configurable for a similar future occurrence and would be readily available as required.

The preliminary assessment and potential benefit are sufficient explore the VALUE of a SRET based solution.

Why SRET?

The following factors were considered when making the case for SRET as an additional method of mitigation.

Proactive Inactivation
- Proven on relevant surrogates (H3N2, H1N1)
- Including a level of efficacy at human safe levels
- Can be deployed independently of personal compliance
Acts on Airborne or Surface Virus
Supports the potential for Rapid Deployment
- Operating parameters are easily configurable for a future similar virus
Suitable for Site Mitigation
- Potential to cover wider areas/larger volumes at a greater range
- Can be deployed independently of personal compliance
Supports continuous mitigation
- Can be operated on demand at variable levels of efficacy
- Including a level of efficacy at human safe levels
Preliminary assessment of design components
- Utilizes proven standard existing capability for both cost effectiveness and time-to-market
  - Cost is speculated to be in the range of major household appliances
- Supports a range of performance
  - With configuration potential for site specific requirements
- Basic product development appears to be straightforward
  - With obvious design dependencies on specific application requirements such as airplanes

The concept may have further potential for similar anti-microbial applications.

First Order Unknowns

There is only one set of documented test results. The focus for a first step is to confirm the fundamental concept and the parameters for an -effective- deployment. The key metrics are;

Time to Kill - The initial tests demonstrated 100% efficacy at a design freqency over a period of 15 min. It would be useful to determine the actual time to 100% efficacy to see how much shorter it might be. This would have considerable bearing on inactivating airborne viruses.

Kill Zone - The tests were conducted at short range. The concept is capable of covering greater distance and volume. and thus applicable for a broad range of potential environments and use cases.

Critical application design parameters to be defined for effective deployment include;

Target - intrinsic figures of merit for a virus, distribution, etc
Environment - factors such as surfaces, dimensions, atmospheric conditions, etc.

The referenced research documented enough of the fundamentals to recommend modeling the concept to predict performance and build confidence. A model also provides a cost effective framework for exploring performance enhancements and a broader range of applications.

Business Models

There are three potential paths to consider for commercialization.

Startup - The most straightforward, capital intensive and difficult approach. An investment to prove out the fundamental concept is a required first step to determine the range of capability for the operating parameters. A clear commercial target is needed to define any product development. A business case and operating plan could be developed after a level of performance is confirmed and a market target identified.

Channel Partner - An established company with a major need and an existing footprint in a market. There are a number of candidates with the potential to provide focus for development while reducing the effort required for other business fundamentals. It could be pursued as a joint venture or as a dedicated OEM which would look pretty much like a startup. There might be issues with exclusivity and IP but the focus should be an advantage in expediting time-to-market. Without clear IP protection, there is a danger with a broadly capable partner who may decide to develop it internally or prefer to work with an existing and better established partner.

License - This is dependent on having something to license. A preliminary patent search turned up a few related filings, but the most relevant appears to have expired based on a PCT filing date of 1998. Given the novel nature of the application, unique and original IP is likely to be generated in the process of productization. Any such know-how could filed if determined to increase value or maintained as trade secrets.

Summary

The NEED to limit the impact of a global pandemic looks like it will remain an ongoing concern for some time. The potential FIT for SRET is to fill the gaps in the current methods and strengthen an overall response. The potential VALUE is not only in addressing the current crisis but being readily available for the next one.

While there is some evidence of efficacy, it remains to be proven as an effective means of mitigation for the target virus. The urgency and interest in a novel method could wane in the time it takes to confirm viability. Vaccines could flood the market, herd immunity could kick in or newer methods such as farUVC could emerge as a viable alternative. IP requires further investigation and without a definitive design to evaluate, some regulatory considerations remain open.

Despite the caveats, the promise is worth further exploration.

The crisis is still going on without a clear end in sight and facing a potential surge in the fall.
The impact has been significant and will leave a lasting impression. References have been made to a 'new normal', perhaps like post 9/11 in the US with corresponding changes to the infrastructure.
The relatively recent events of SARS/MERS suggest a future event is more likely to occur in a globally connected economy

SRET could play a role in facilitating a return to business as usual by adding a measure of confidence with proactive mitigation for the key use cases. The major unknowns for commercializing a solution have been outlined in the Project Plan.

THE PROJECT