Market Analysis

Global Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity across the board as countries clamped down on business as usual in an effort to contain the virus. It continues to impact everyday life on a global scale with no clear end in sight and a high degree of uncertainty remains over the ability to control it. The US is still averaging over 40,000 cases/day and spikes are making headlines around the world. Vaccines are reported to be on the horizon, but have yet to appear and concerns have been raised over the risk of a premature release due to political pressure.

Heading into the fall of 2020, the distinct possibility of a surge in cases exists as cooler temperatures drive activity indoors in conjunction with the onset of the annual flu season. The return to school creates conditions for 'super-spreader' events with over 100 colleges in the US reporting an increase in cases as students arrive despite a range of measures to prevent it. The third and fourth waves of the Spanish flu in 1918 should serve as a clear reminder that the conditions for this are a real consideration.

As the world waits for the pandemic to run its course, the repercussions are likely to be felt for some time. For a number of reasons, the available methods were not sufficient to limit the scope of the pandemic. Economic recovery is expected to be slow and serves to reinforce the value of additional means to prevent a similar occurrence.

Economic Damage

2020 remains on track to be one of the worst years on record as entire industries struggle with the greatest economic shock in decades. The world at large is facing a recession in 2021 as the health and human toll grows. The IMF expects global economic output to fall by nearly -5% with the latest news showing the Indian economy to be shrinking faster than any other major nation as it struggles with a rise in cases. An -8% decline is projected for the U.S. GDP in 2020 with small business representing 44% of the economy being hit hard by the lockdown.

Some of the largest hits include;

Retail: -48% / ($1,153B)
Commercial RE: -17% / ($425B)
Airlines: -50% / ($419B)
Global Tourism: -56% / ($320B)
Hospitality: -53% / ($848B)
Live events: -54% / ($29B)

Every industry has been affected to some degree by the pandemic. While a very few have benefited, most have not and all are looking at changes in the near future. Given the extent of the damage, there should be a number of opportunities for additional measures to facilitate recovery from the current situation and limit the impact of any future occurrences.

The fundamentals have been abstracted into four main use cases to explore a possible fit for an additional means of mitigation.

Transportation

SECTORS: Airlines, urban mass transit, elevators, trains, cruise ships, ride share?, cars?

CONDITIONS: High traffic volume / turnover, confined spaces, close quarters, very limited mobility

Number of potential contacts: med to high depending on many factors
Exposure time: transitory to extended
Spacing: close quarters, confined, but can be controlled for planes
Mobility: very limited
Ventilation: Controlled for some, passive for others

RISK: High. Long periods of potential exposure with uncertain mitigation methods.

TRUST: Low

NOTES: All travel is way down, might take business clients a while to come back given the technology based alternatives and even longer for leisure given the depressed economic conditions. Mass transit is an economic necessity for a substantial portion of urban populations. Mitigation on changeover and ‘security theater’ have been publicized by airlines in an attempt to reduce concern.

Buildings

SECTORS: Offices, schools, retail locations, restaurants, entertainment venues, nursing homes, hospitals, etc

CONDITIONS: Potentially heavy traffic at times, lower to med turnover, confined spaces. some mobility, guidelines set by site management policy with general compliance expected.

Number of potential contacts: med to high depending on access, nature of activity
Exposure time: transitory to extended
Spacing: better options for maintaining guidelines
Mobility: better flexibility, options
Ventilation: Generally controlled, not necessarily

RISK: Med to High. Primary issue may be with asymptotic carriers or sites with marginal guideline enforcement.

TRUST: Low. Too many people.

NOTES: WFH (work from home) is having an opportunity to change the way companies do business. It may not last

Open Spaces

SECTORS: Streets, transportation centers, some sport venues, outdoor public spaces, etc.

CONDITIONS: Potential for high traffic, but with sufficient buffer zones for pro-active/defensive social distancing, control limited to personal compliance with social distancing guidelines or policies enforced by site amangement (i. e. vacation destinations).

Number of potential contacts: low to med, dependent on location and activity
Exposure time: transitory
Spacing: ample opportunity to maintain guidelines
Mobility: ample
Ventilation: Generally optimal.

RISK: Low to Med, but completely dependent on population density and activity. Open air provides a natural dispersion mechanism to reduce the concentration of viruses and risk of infection.

TRUST: Low.

NOTES: The primary means of mitigation available for these conditions are social distancing and PPE.

Home

SECTORS: Residential spaces

CONDITIONS: Low traffic, known (and assumed vetted) population, high incentive for compliance

Number of potential contacts: lowest
Exposure time: extended
Spacing: ample opportunity to maintain guidelines
Mobility: sufficient
Ventilation: generally adequate

RISK: Low

TRUST: High

NOTES: The defacto lockdown locations It’s assumed guidlines are being followed by those who have the most to gain by compliance. Supplemental mitigation methods might be considered but are not expected to make much of a difference given the prime benefit of isolation.

Summary

The need for any viable means of facilitating a return to normal is clear for a number of industries. Transportation, specifically airlines, are a prime candidate given the staggering losses and somewhat indispensable role they play in a global economy. Buildings and other closed spaces with a high volume of human traffic are also strong prospects and stand to benefit from an easily deployable means of continuous and proactive mitigation.

The future of COVID-19 is unknown. It could remain active in the population for some time and lead to occasional small outbreaks, trigger another wave, or continue to be an ongoing crisis. The relatively recent events of SARS and MERS suggest the increased likelihood of similar future events in a globally connected economy. Vaccines are expected to help at some point, but a more responsive method of inactivating the virus would make a difference.

A couple of additional technologies have some ability to address the key factors of airborne transmission, proactive inactivation, rapid deployment and site mitigation for the use cases. A recommendation has been made to further investigate the potential of one.

THE PROJECT